Super Over 48
Christmas Eve 2025
Ball 1
What went wrong for England?
Was it arrogance? Over/under preparedness? Too many beers in Noosa? Too many wild swipes/reverse sweeps?
Well, maybe.
I think ‘inaccurate bowling and inferior catching’ is closer to the truth.
But I think the underlying explanation might simply be this: Australia is better than England at cricket.
I don’t say that to sound arrogant … I mean, how could I? None of Australia’s success is down to me, notwithstanding the few good innings I played for the Coogee Bay Hotel.
I just think that this is the inescapable conclusion from an objective analysis of the record. As for why this is the case (if it indeed is), that’s a question for another day.
Some English readers will scoff at the notion, of course. ‘If that is so, Paul, why is the head-to-head Ashes series record so close?’
On the surface, it would seem they have a point:
But these numbers hide the full story.
England’s greatest period of Ashes dominance occurred right at the start. They won the first 8 Ashes series (and 11 of the first 12) in a breathless 14 years, from 1882 to 1896. Yep, 12 series were crammed into 14 years - often just 3-Test series, plus a 2-Test series and even a 1-Test series.
In other words, Australia’s weakest period led to England racking up an inordinate number of Ashes wins.
Futhermore, two series that Australia won handsomely (1881/82 and 1979/80) don’t count to the Ashes, and in the 3-Test series that England won 2-1 in 1882/83 a fourth Test was played - which Australia won - but it does not count to the Ashes.
None of this is me complaining. There is no conspiracy - it’s just the way events transpired.
But it does skew the record a bit - as does the fact that many of Australia’s Ashes series wins have been thrashings but a lot of England’s wins have been narrow.
With that all in mind, let’s look at the overall Test match record between the two sides, for all Tests, including the 16 non-Ashes ones.
Pretty one-sided. Or, to put it another way, it’s a contest in England; it’s no-contest in Australia.
If I limit it to matches after World War I, England fall behind even at home:
120 to 72 is pretty emphatic - and I haven’t mentioned world cups, nor the dominance of Australia’s women.
Ball 2
So, 3-0 after three Tests in Australia really should not be a surprise.
Pop quiz: since 1980, there have been 12 Ashes series in Australia - meaning there have been 36 Tests in ‘the first three Tests of a series’.
How many do you think England have won?
Answer to follow below. (Here is a gloriously brooding image of Chappelli to help you focus and prevent any spoilers):
The answer … two.
Yep, two - out of 36 Tests!
England won the first Test of 1986/87 and the second Test of 2010/11. (In both cases they won the Ashes - their only Ashes wins in Australia since 1980).
There have been 7 draws and Australia have won 27.
It is a testament to how strong the Ashes is that people keep turning up and tuning in.
At this point, I am sure there will be at least one English reader screaming, ‘Well you lot haven’t won a series here since 2001!’
This is true, although it did come off the back of 4 consecutive wins in England. Nevertheless, it is deeply saddening to me. By the 2027 Ashes, it will be 26 years since Australia will have won a series in England - by far the longest such stretch either side has had in either country.
But although true, this fact masks how competitive Australia has been:
It is hard to see this pattern changing: England winning the odd series and even dominating from time-to-time, but the long-term trend being of Aussie success.
Ball 3
Last week, I passionately defended Snicko. Some readers might be chuckling about that now.
In my defence, although I was saying ‘Snicko’ I was actually meaning ‘audio spike technology’ (or whatever it is called). You see, for years I have blithely used ‘Snicko’ and ‘Ultra-Edge’ interchangeably.
That glorious, carefree, naïve era is over now.
Snicko was embarrassing this week. It is diabolical that a human operator loaded the bowler’s end stump-cam audio (rather than the batter’s end) and as a result (because sound travels more slowly than light) the spike for Alex Carey’s nick appeared a few frames early, leading to his being given not out.
It might well have cost England the Test match.
Apparently Ultra-Edge uses ball-tracking data to ensure that the spike and the vision more closely align.
In the light of this, I have some questions:
Why the hell was Snicko being used instead of Ultra-Edge?
Given Snicko was being used, why was there not a failsafe to prevent such a ludicrous error?
Why does the International Cricket Council not fund DRS? It is preposterous that it is up to the broadcasters!
Given that, apparently, Channel 7 uses Ultra-Edge, when is the announcement coming that Snicko has been sacked and replaced for Boxing Day?
The underlying technology is amazing. It is sad that players and fans alike have now lost confidence in it because of such amateurism.
Ball 4
I knew the crowd was going to be good when Adelaide Oval was packed for the first ball.
Even with sell outs, there are often lots of empty seats at the start. But this was different - and the crowd of 56,298 duly broke the record for cricket in Adelaide, indeed it beat the published capacity of the ground as well!
Day 3 was a day 3 record; day 4 was a day 4 record: all of the first 4 days are now amongst the top 8 Test crowds in Adelaide for all time. (And day 5’s 20,643 was the second highest day 5 ever).
And the total crowd for the Test blew the old record out of the water. Bodyline is now down in third and the Ashes that followed it (1936/37), when Bradman dragged Australia to a 3-2 win, is now fourth.
The pitch was good, the stadium got rave reviews; it was all rather wonderful: a great week for Adelaide and for cricket.
Ball 5
So what should Australia’s 11 be for Boxing Day?
Cummins and Lyon are out, replaced in the squad by Jhye Richardson and Todd Murphy. I am so excited about Richardson and I’d put him straight into the side. I think he is a champion. His first class bowling average is 20.7 and, when fully fit he is elite.
I’m not so convinced about Murphy. I’m happy for him to be in the mix for games in the subcontinent but with an overall first class average of 34.9 I don’t think he’s the best option in Australia.
If forced to pick a specialist spinner, I’d prefer Matt Kuhnemann or Corey Rocchiccioli. But if up to me I’d go for Beau Webster - if the pitch does indeed spin then I think he’d do well. Not to mention his batting, medium-pace bowling and catching!
Webster might end up playing anyway, instead of Green. Personally I’d pick them both.
At the top of the order, I’m still not convinced about Weatherald, for the same reasons as when he was picked: he’s played 80 first class matches for an average of only 37.
It’s too early to write him off but after three Tests, his Test average is now down to 26 - partially due to a dodgy LBW call.
As I said when he was selected - if he ends up still in the side in a couple of years with an average in the 40s feel free to tell me I was wrong!
Ball 6
Happy 80th Birthday to Doug Walters!
Every time Dougie gets talked about, his laconic humour, drinking and smoking all get referenced. And that’s fine - he is a genuine Aussie sporting hero and partly because the average person down the pub can see themselves in him.
But this should not obscure the fact that Walters was a great cricketer. He never seems to feature in ‘best of’ sides, but he deserves consideration.
5,357 Test runs at 48.3 and 49 Test wickets at 29.1: those numbers stack up well against almost anyone. Imagine Nathan Lyon, except with a slightly better bowling average … and a batting ability on par with Michael Clarke!
Sure, I know that Walters was a medium pacer not an offspinner and that he only took 49 Test wickets so it is hardly an apples with apples comparison. But imagine 11 Doug Walters versus 11 Nathan Lyons: the GOATS would not stand a chance.
Please remember Doug next time you pick a ‘best ever’ Aussie side. At the very least he deserves to be in the mix!
Ball 7
Happy Christmas everyone! I probably won’t write a newsletter after the MCG Test but will return after Sydney.
Thank you for all your support this year!
Merry Christmas Paul I really enjoy your articles catches win matches as they say and it also might win you a series